According to CARFAX data, fall accounts for the most crashes in 39 out of 50 U.S. states, outpacing even winter. Shorter days mean more driving in the dark, and the risk of wildlife collisions spikes as deer migration season begins. Add in slick roads covered in wet leaves, and suddenly the most picturesque season of the year becomes the most perilous for drivers.
These risks don’t fall equally across demographics. Younger drivers, particularly Gen Z drivers who continue to text and drive despite the risks, are disproportionately vulnerable in low-visibility and high-hazard conditions. Distraction plus seasonal hazards make for a dangerous mix.
State-by-State Patterns and Outliers
While most states see fall as their danger season, there are exceptions. Connecticut, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, New Hampshire, and Vermont report winter as their deadliest season, largely due to extreme snow and ice. Some southern states, like Florida, rank spring higher due to heavy rainfall and tourism-driven traffic.
But in regions with tree-lined roads and rural highways, fall’s hazards dominate. Speed also plays a part: CARFAX data backs what researchers have long argued, that speed variance, not just speeding itself, drives crash risk. When cautious drivers crawl on leaf-covered back roads while others push to make up time, collision risk spikes.
Why Drivers Underestimate Fall
Many drivers prepare diligently for winter, buying snow tires, carrying emergency kits, but ignore fall. Experts point out that braking distances more than double on wet leaves, and drivers are often caught off guard by sudden fog or early frost. Darkness adds to the challenge: National Safety Council data shows crash risk is nearly doubled at night, which now covers more of the daily commute.
The vehicle you drive also matters. Advanced driver-assistance systems can mitigate some of these risks, which is why buyers flock toward the safest cars of 2025, as ranked by IIHS. But even in a five-star safety-rated SUV, ignoring the season’s hazards remains a recipe for disaster.
How to Stay Ahead of the Curve
Experts recommend treating fall like a transition season that demands new habits. That means checking tire tread and pressure regularly, using headlights at dusk even if it feels early, and keeping wipers and brake systems in peak condition. It also means defensive driving, leaving extra room on slick roads, watching for deer at dawn and dusk, and staying hyper-aware when traffic mixes cautious and aggressive drivers.
The bigger takeaway is that Americans tend to fear winter roads, but CARFAX’s data proves that autumn is the more consistent danger nationwide. The lesson for drivers is that, fall requires as much preparation, awareness, and respect as the coldest months of the year.
